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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Historical component aging curves

By Tangotiger

Using WAR, among others, here’s one:

This means the peak fielding age is from 25 to 33. Seems reasonable. Don’t forget that WAR includes playing time, so it would be hard to peak fairly early in your career.

HOWEVER, we have a huge problem here: survivor bias. The ONLY players playing at age 40 are the really good players. That group is nothing at all like the group playing at age 25. This article is worth re-reading.

(6) Comments • 2009/07/28 • Sabermetrics • Talent_Distribution

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