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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Gotta give Joe Torre some credit

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Although it is a no-brainer, as we have pointed out numerous times on this blog, many managers would not have pulled their starter…

Top of the 7th, Billingsley, a very good pitcher overall, is pitching a shutout in a 0-0 game. It is first and third, 2 outs, and Russell Martin, the Dodgers RH number 8 hitter is due to bat against the Padres’ starter, Garland, an average pitcher, who is also pitching a shutout.

Bud Black (whom I do not like in general, as a strategist) IBB’s Martin.  Now, if he assumes that Torre is going to pull his pitcher for a pinch hitter, it is a terrible IBB of course.  Absolutely horrible.  If it is 50-50 or 75-25 that Torre will pinch hit, I don’t know off the top of my head.  If he is thinking, “Well, I force him to take his ‘hot’ starter out of the game,” and he is OK with the pinch hitter, it is still a terrible move.  As we have explained many times, also on this blog, a very good starter the third (or more) time through the order is not so good anymore and any decent reliever is likely better, especially if you can mix and match relievers to try and get the platoon advantage.

Anyway, Torre does elect to pinch hit (100% the right move) with Ethier, a LHB, who was originally scratched from the lineup (stomach issues I think).

Black still has a chance to redeem himself by bringing in Thatcher, a very good LH reliever.  Thatcher is much better than Garland in this situation.  He doesn’t.  Ethier singles, Garland is lifted, and the rest is almost history (2-0 Dodgers in the bottom of the 7th as I write this)…


(7) Comments • 2010/07/29 • SabermetricsIn-game_Strategy
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