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Friday, May 09, 2008
Ninth Inning: Game theory, C.J. Wilson, and Adrian Beltre
Wed. night in the 9th inning of the Tex/Sea game (not that anyone would be watching that game), C.J. Wilson, the Rangers’ regular closer, came in in the 9th inning to preserve a 2-run lead. (Padilla had pitched a very good game, throwing 96 and 97 mph gas!)
Wilson pitches to the first batter and goes 1-0. Remember that Texas is leading 2-0, there are no outs and no one is on base.
Now, you would almost have to assume that the batter is taking at this point. In fact, it might be that he SHOULD be taking, almost no matter who it is, or who the pitcher is, but I am not sure.
Anyway, Wilson throws a 1-0 curve ball and goes 2-0. I was thinking, “I am all for game theory and what have you (almost never throwing a certain pitch 100% of the time in any given situation), but surely he is supposed to throw almost nothing but fastballs in this situation, especially if behind in the count.”
Obviously there is a gigantic premium in not walking the batter, since a walk is the same as a single and almost identical to a d, t, or HR. There is virtually no advantage for the batter to get an extra base hit, so the advantage of a “fat pitch” is largely gone.
So, Wilson goes to a 3-2 count, and what does he throw? Another curve ball for ball 4! I can’t believe in a million years that it is correct to do anything but throw a fastball right down the middle in that situation! What could the pitcher and the catcher (granted, I think it was the rookie, Saltalamacchia behind the plate) possibly be thinking? Isn’t that a basic rule in major league baseball - NEVER walk a batter in the 9th inning, when you are winning and he is not the tying or go ahead/winning run?
I wonder if the pitching coach or manger talked to him and the catcher about the pitch after the game? I think that is a mandatory conversation, but I have a feeling that it never occurred. The announcers did not say a word about that, I don’t think.
In the same PA, when the count was 3-1 (oh, yeah, Beltre was the batter), Beltre swung at a borderline pitch. I am not as sure of this as I am of the 3-2 curve ball, but I don’t think it is correct for ANYONE to swing at a 3-1 pitch in that situation either. And of course, the power of the batter (other than his “base hit power") has nothing to do with the decision. It is a matter of what is the average out per PA (OBA) after taking the 3-1 pitch as compared to swinging at the 3-1 pitch, on a pitch that the batter decides is a good pitch. Even if the batter is 100% sure it is a strike (which is never going to be the case), you then have to compare a 3-2 count versus swinging at a good pitch, only in terms of OBA (not slugging).