THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more.
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Forecasting likelihood of starting pitchers being injured

By Tangotiger

Fantastic stuff from Jeff: part1, part2.

First off, the mean forecast for any starter is 40%. So, Jeff’s got his forecasts, at the extreme, at +/- 15%. I have to believe the uncertainty of his estimate is going to be mighty high, some +/-20%.

Secondly, the median stay is some 50 days or so.

Conclusion: pitchers are expected to miss ALOT of time.

(3) Comments • 2010/12/14 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting • Pitchers • Training_Health

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