from Amazon
Monday, November 28, 2011
Forecaster’s Challenge 2011: Results (preview)
There was one official competition, and three unofficial one.
The consensus pick among the other 21 pro forecasters ended up in 2nd place, by a single point, against the official winner (which I’ll reveal tomorrow).
When looking at the four competitions overall, the consensus pick finished #1. Marcel finished 12th among the 22, and the Fangraphs community was a sliver behind at 13th.
The consensus also finished #5 last year over the 4 competitions.
My main takeaway is that the best thing to do is take a consensus of the pros. No one is really consistently providing value-added.
By the way, using my points system, tied for 1st place among players were Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp.