from Amazon
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Expert Picks
David Gassko has a little look at the ESPN football experts:
http://stats.mostvaluablenetwork.com/general/its-a-lock
I also looked at the Weeks 9 through 12, and the total so far for the season, on games that were the “locks of the week” is a 52-24 record, 0.684. (Subject to someone double-checking.) I would not be surprised, that if we looked at the Vegas odds on those games (or if AccuScore would be so kind as to also supply the odds), that it would indeed be in the .650-.700 level. That is, I doubt the “experts” know anything more than the crowd.
In the non-unanimous games, Accuscore was 56-43 (0.566). My guess is that Accuscore is either at, or just a bit above, the Vegas line. I’m sure a football bettor here can help me out.
In fact, when you look at the Accuscore record:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/features/talent?week=12&seasontype=2
they are top at the top, with 2 other experts. I wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the season that the computer will beat each of the individual experts, but will pretty much match the experts as a group. So far, Accuscore is at 0.617.