from Amazon
Monday, December 28, 2009
Evaluating a trade
#1: What is the most outstanding player or package you can get back for a player or package?
#2: Are you better off keeping your player/package than the best outstanding offer on the table?
Let’s take Javy Vazquez for Melky Cabrera + good-not-great prospect. If you are the Braves, is this the best you can get back? If not, you try to keep shopping. If it is, then you have to decide: am I better off trading?
If you are the Yanks and you want someone of Javy’s quality, is this the least you can give up? If not, you try to keep shopping. If this is the minimum you have to give up, then decide if you are still better off with the trade?
So, for those who are trying to figure out if this trade, or other head-scratchers make any sense, evaluate it on those terms. If you think your team could have gotten more, or given up less, then list out the players. It makes no sense to have an opinion that your team could have gotten more or given up less, unless you actually say what they could have gotten more or what less they could have given up.
If you can’t do that, if you as a Braves fan concede that Melky + prospect is as good as it gets, but also conclude that you are better off with Javy, then you have to ask yourself: why am I evaluating Javy so much higher than everyone else in the league?
Other than Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and a few other “iconic” players, you should not be in a position to over-value a player from the other 29 teams.
So, go ahead, all of you guys who don’t like a trade for your team: evaluate the trade on these terms. And then tell me your team still got the worse end of the deal.