from Amazon
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Effect of foul area on strikeouts
Good stuff.
This analysis confirms a significant inverse correlation (more AF, fewer SO; less AF, more SO) between AF and SO, for the 3 time periods reported. It reaffirms the previously-reported relationship identified in the AL 1964-68, as presented at SABR 40 . Analysis of the effect of each square foot of foul territory on SO is currently in progress. It is hypothesized that the Cleveland Indians pitching staff would have SO more hitters in 1964-68 had they not pitched 81 games yearly in Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Basically, the true relationship is between foul area and foul-strikes. If you have no foul territory, then those foul balls are out of play foul balls (and the at bat is extended). If you have a huge foul territory, then those foul balls are in-play foul balls. And if they are in-play, then they have a chance of ending the at bat “prematurely” (disproportionately early).
Strikeouts is what you use to infer this relationship.