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Friday, August 01, 2008
Edgar
My quick Edgar post:
Wade Boggs had a late start to his MLB career, as far as great players are concerned. He was a bit over 25 years old when he got his 1000th PA. Edgar Martinez had an even later start, registering his 1000th PA when he was over 28 years old. They both came up as 3B at around the same time, and were considered great hitters at around the same time. While Boggs was working on his fielding, Edgar was a DH.
Boggs ended up with 2068 more plate appearances (PA) than Edgar (basically 3 full seasons). What kind of performance would Edgar need to accomplish in order for his stat line to match that of Boggs? Well, in those 2068 PA, he’d need 844 more singles, 110 more doubles + triples, 63 more walks+hitbatters, but 191 less homeruns.
In order to take care of the 191 less homeruns, we can trade those 191 homeruns (and 228 outs) for 419 singles. That is, having 419 PA of 419 singles, or 419 PA of 191 HR and 228 outs is equally productive.
So, recasting, we need Edgar, in 3 full seasons, to get: 425 more singles, 110 more doubles+triples, 63 more walks+hitbatters, and get no HR. If he does that, he’d be equal to Wade Boggs’s career performance. How hard would it be for Edgar to get on base 598 times on 2068 PA (OBP of .289) with no HR at all? He’d have to hit worse than Andujar Cedeno (career .292 OBP, 2233 PA, 111 doubles+triples, 164 walks+hitbatters, and with 47 HR).
He’d also have to have 294 more runs scored and drive in 56 less runners on base. That’s a net of 238 runs participated in, in 2068 PA that he’d need to achieve, or a rate of .115 runs per PA. Among all players with at least 2000 career PA born since 1931, the lowest rate is at .126. Even Cedeno has participated in almost 400 runs in his career.
In short, in order for Edgar to compile a batting career like Wade Boggs, he’d have to hit for 3 more seasons at far below average.
Is it that important to “compile” data in order to prove your overall worthiness of a hitter? DH or no DH, if Edgar got to 3000 hits, he’d be in. And if Edgar sucked for 3 years, he’d reach the equivalent of Wade Boggs.
Edgar got his 1000th PA 3 years after Wade Boggs got his. The only difference between the two is that Boggs proved he had the better glove, but Boggs also managed to play a large portion of his career at Fenway Park.
To deny Edgar the HOF is to admit igorance. Then again, Edgar will have good company with Tim Raines.