from Amazon
Monday, April 16, 2007
Early Season Leverage
There were some comments at BTF with people commenting on Leverage Index (LI) as it relates to Papelbon. At the bottom of that link, you will see various LI. His paLI is 2.41, and that’s determined on a PA-by-PA basis. His inLI is determined by the first batter he faces in each inning. His gmLI is determined by the first batter he faces in the game. exLI is the LI when he was pulled out. Anyway, the gmLI is at 2.74 and his paLI is at 2.41. Basically, he’s pulling a superman by reducing his own leverage. I highly recommend reading the three part series on Leverage, by clicking on ARTICLES at the top of this page. I actually go through the Papelbon case from last year.
As for Baseball Prospectus’ Leverage, Papelbon is at 1.41. Let’s see, he’s come into the game in the bottom of the 9th with a 3-run lead; the bottom of the 8th with 1 out 2 men on ahead by 1; top of the 8th, 1 out, 2 men on, ahead by 2. How that works out to below-average leverage (1.4) for a closer is a testament to the shortcoming of BP’s Leverage. I really wish BP would either stop using the word Leverage, or simply use my charts, and I will continue to knock anyone who uses (or worse, defends) BP’s Leverage or Drinen’s “P” as a proxy to “leverage” as the typical fan uses it.