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Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Ducks on Pond
Nice idea from Poz, to look to see which batters are given the most runners on base. These are the guys you want to drive in your runners.
Can we do the opposite? How about which batters are given most opportunities to get on base and score? I’ll propose one: most plate appearances with no outs.
The chance of scoring when you reach base with 0 outs is 45%; it’s 30% with 1 out, and 15% with 2 outs. So, if you have one guy that reaches base .400 times and the other that reaches base .300 times, then you want the .400 guy on base with 0 outs (45% chance to score) and the .300 guy with 2 outs (with a 15% chance to score). That’s going to give you .4x.45 plus .3x.15 runs, or .225 runs. If you reverse it, that’s .195 runs. So, you get 15% more runs if you can slot them the right way (under this limited illustration).
Obviously, whoever is your leadoff hitter is going to lead. But, who is your second guy with the most chances to get on base with no outs? Do your team, and post the results, and running commentary like Poz if you like.