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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Does Molina instead of Posada make much difference?
There is some controversy over who should catch when Burnett pitches for the Yankees. Girardi said that Molina will get the call. Molina is one of the worst hitters in baseball. Posada is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball (not named Mauer). There is a gigantic swing between the two. Having Molina in the lineup rather than Posada is equivalent to taking Mauer out of the MIN lineup, which would get you executed in Minnesota, right?
But, does it really make that much difference to the Yankees’ chances of winning the game? First of all, Molina is much the better defensive catcher I assume (would Molina even have an MLB job if he wasn’t excellent defensively?). Also, he is going to bat 9th and thus only get 2 or 3 PA before he is replaced with a pinch hitter if the Yankees are losing or if Burnett comes out of the game. In addition, Posada becomes available to pinch hit for anyone (although most of the Yankee starters are pinch-hit proof).
Anyway, I ran both players through my sim. Although my sim does pinch-hitting, I think it probably lets Molina bat for most, if not all, of the game. I’m not sure about that. Plus, it does not fully include catcher defense, like pitch blocking (which I think Posada is terrible at). Oh, and Posada is still playing hurt right now, which I included in the sim. I knocked him down a notch or two, although he is still way better offensively than Molina.
The results: With Posada (batting 7th), Yankees score 6.17, allow 4.18 rpg and win 72.15% of the time, in 100,000 games. With Molina (batting 9th), they score 5.85, allow 4.05 rpg and win 71.33% of the time.
Given the limitations of the sim which I just mentioned, and the possibility that Burnett actually pitches better with Molina behind the plate, I think it is a wash at worst. Nothing to get in a huff about if you are a Yankee fan.