from Amazon
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Does it make any sense for a batter to feign a bunt attempt early in the count…
in order to draw the third baseman in so that he can increase his hit percentage when he swings away?
The simple answer is, “No, it does not.” Why?
For several reasons. If he is doing that in order to get more hits when he swings away, why would the third baseman move in? He wouldn’t.
If he is attempting an actual bunt early in the count, why would the third baseman move in? He wouldn’t unless he was playing incorrectly in the first place and the batter just reminded him that he sometimes bunts. If that is the case, then the bench coach is not doing his job.
So, what do we have here?
One, the batter should never be trying to feign a bunt in order to pull the third baseman in. If he is, he is simply telling the third baseman that he is not going to be bunting anymore. If he is still going to be bunting perhaps (and perhaps not) then the third baseman should simply be ignoring him and playing exactly where he is supposed to be playing against this batter given his chances of bunting on each and every pitch.
Two, if the batter attempts a bunt early in the count, the third baseman should not move up after that unless he screwed up in the first place and forgot that the batter likes to bunt sometimes.
Again, we have game theory going on here, where the third baseman needs to play in the exact position such that it doesn’t matter whether the batter bunts or does not and the batter needs to bunt with a certain frequency that it doesn’t matter where the third baseman is playing at all (if in fact the batter has a positive expectancy at all when bunting as compared to not bunting).
But, if the third baseman is smart or just doing his job correctly, the batter gains nothing by feigning a bunt. In fact, he gives away two things in an attempt to trick the third baseman (which has zero chance of working if the third baseman is playing optimally): One, he may take a pitch (while feigning the bunt) he would not necessarily take. Two, he is potentially giving away valuable information to the third baseman (such as, “I was feigning a bunt and now I am not going to bunt.")
If I were a third baseman, I would take my normal, optimal position against this batter, and when he either feigns a bunt or attempts a bunt on a pitch, after that I would yawn and stay in the same position (of course with 2 strikes I would move back if he is a potential bunter).