from Amazon
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Do you really want the best team to win the World Series?
Suppose the season was 1 million games long. The best team in the league wins 60% of their games. We know that that is just a sample, and that we are 95% sure that their true talent level is somewhere between .599 and .601. Suppose that the second best team was a true .575 team. They then meet in the World Series. If they play long enough (say 1 million games), then the better team will win the World Series virtually all the time. But, do we want that? Setting aside the logisitics and silliness of 1 million games, do we REALLY always want the better team to win? Or, do we want some lucky breaks every now and then to dictate the outcome?
This is my question to you: if a .600 team faced a .575 team in the World Series, how often would you really want the .600 team to win the World Series?
Q2: If a .600 team faced a .550 team, how often do you want the .600 team to win the World Series?
Q3: .600 v .500. Same question.