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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, August 02, 2007

Did the Padres get rid of Bochy because they are smart and he is not?

By , 05:31 AM

Actually, I don’t know whether he quit or was fired.  I’ve been watching Giants games lately hoping to catch a glimpse of history.  In two days I’ve seen a bunch of egregious errors by Bochy.  That does not bode well for his reputation in my book.  Here is what happened in Tueday’s and Wednesday’s games:


In Tuesday’s game with the Giants up 3-1 in the top of the 7th, Lowry was allowed to hit with runners on 1st and 2nd and 1 out, with a good pinch hitter, Sweeney, waiting in the wings.  Surely that can’t be right.  And as usually happens when LaRussa pulls that nonsense, Lowry was taken out in the 7th anyway (not like he was going to pitch a compete game anyway).

To make matters worse, add insult to injury, rub salt into the wound, or whatever you want to call it, he bunted.  You have to be an awful hitter (and decent bunter), which Lowry is not, in order to bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out.  Lowry appeared as if he is a poor bunter and promptly bunted into a pop out with 2 strikes I think.

The next night (last night), with the Giants up 4-2 in the 8th, the first Dodger batter, Furcal, bunted for a hit.  Bochy then brought in Kline to face Pierre, a lefty.  Good move so far.  Pierre bunted for a hit and after Vizquel made an ill-advised bad throw to first, Furcal ended up on third.  So now we have runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs and a RHB coming up followed by a lefty (Gonzo).

Plus, everyone knew that Pierre would likely attempt to steal a base.  What should Bochy have done?  Probably bring in his closer, but we know he is not going to do that.  In all fairness, I don’t know that his closer (Hennessy) would have had much time to warm up.  Everything thus far happened quickly.

So what did Bochy do?  Bring in a crappy really tall (easy to steal on) RHP in Messenger who has a good ERA, lousy peripherals and is basically a replacement level reliever.  Pierre promptly stole second easily on the first pitch, Bochy left him in there to pitch against the LHB (Gonzo), and the rest is history.  The Giants and Messenger lost the game of course.

First of all, brining in one of your worst relievers (although I am not sure he is perceived as such - probably not) in a high leverage situation like that is a joke.  Second of all, leaving Kline in there to pitch to the RHB and then to the lefty Gonzalez was an easy choice to make.  Kline would have essentially kept Pierre from stealing (or at least lowered his SB success rate enough to probably make it incorrect for him to steal) which was critical in that situation.  Not to mention the fact that Kline is an excellent pitcher and not too bad versus righties.

So what was Bochy thinking?  I have no idea.

Then again, I had just watched the Baltimore skipper intentionally walk the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 7th inning in the Boston game only to see that runner score, Baltimore blow the lead and the game. (In case you are wondering, it is almost never correct to issue an IBB with no outs.)

It is incredibe to me how stupid managers can be and how many extra games in win expectancy can be garnered over the course of a season just by using some semblance of an optimal strategy with regard to these types of things.  Give me one day with a manager (assuming he is taking notes) and I can hand over 10-15 million dollars in “FA money” to just about any team, with my eyes closed…

(101) Comments • 2007/08/14 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyMLB_Management
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