from Amazon
Friday, February 16, 2007
Custom Win Values
Many of you are familiar with Custom Run Values. In a recent post at BTF, someone was calculating Win Values. It’s an easy step, so here you have it at Google Docs.
Here’s an explanation:
The sheet named “Run Values” is simply a copy of what’s on my site. The “Win Values” sheet is a translation of Runs to Wins, using PythagenPat.
You’ll note that in the 3 to 7 RPG environment, the win value of the CS doesn’t change, and those of the out, K, and walk are fairly stable.
The “wOBA weights” is the coefficient to use to properly scale all the positive events. This is a good one to look at, as it shows how the events change relative to each other, as the run environment changes. The impact of the single goes down slightly as the run environment goes down, while the impact of the double goes up slightly. The impact of the walk follows the single, except in very low run environments where it really drops in value. The impact of the triple increases somewhat as the run environment decreases, while the HR increases substantially.
There’s a good reason why these weights in the 5 RPG are a bit different than the ones in The Book, but it’s not really worth getting into it, unless someone really wants to get into the innards.