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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Saturday, March 13, 2010

Cost of a free agent win in 2010 offseason

By Tangotiger

For multi-year deals, close to 5MM$.

***

I don’t understand the Colby Lewis forecast.  He has 217 career MLB innings with a career 6.71 ERA.  He apparently had an excellent campaign in Japan.  He’s forecasted for 8.2 WAR in the next two seasons in MLB now that he’s 30/31? 

Brian, can you list for me all the pitchers you have forecasted for WAR that is within 0.5 wins of Colby Lewis for 2010-11?  Even Rally has him at +3.7 wins in 2010, and presumably +3.2 in 2011.  That’s close to 7 wins.

MGL: what do you have him as?  What does PECOTA have?

I think Colby Lewis is a great discussion case here.

(14) Comments • 2010/05/10 • Sabermetrics • Finances • Forecasting
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