from Amazon
Friday, September 26, 2008
Cool Standings
Great and obvious explanation:
The thing you have to remember with a case like the Rockies, when we say they had a 2 percent chance, which is basically a 1-in-50 shot, that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen once every 50 years. It means for every 50 teams that find themselves in that situation—a certain number of games back with a certain number left to play, with the schedule they were facing—one of them will make the playoffs. And there are a lot of teams in that situation, and most of them don’t make the playoffs. Half the league was probably in that situation last year.
Another way to think about this is this: make a bet after every single day. Bet on all the teams with a less than 5% chance of making the playoffs, on that day, to make it. Keep betting. Every day. Chances are, the amount of money you bet will match the payoff.
(Hat tip: David)