from Amazon
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Confirmation Bias
So, there we sit discussing the skills of a highly qualified and tested group where the distinction between players is very, very thin. However, what becomes clear is that for the players we want to keep in big league camp, we generally talk about what they can do. For the players we want to send down, we tend to focus on what they can’t do, so the decisions seem obvious (which they’re not). Understand, I keep using “we” because every one of us in the room is guilty - we can’t help ourselves!
Later on, someone commented on how Jeter is such an example, to which I replied:
People always bring up Jeter, but that is a terrible example. In the Fans’ Scouting Report, Jeter always rates as average for a SS, year in and year out. And this year, he rates as below average.
The ones who believe that Jeter is an above average fielder are the broadcasters that drink the Jeter kool-aid.
Paul brought up confirmation bias, and I suspect this is true for a couple of players on each team. But as he notes, this is true not only with the Fans Scouting Report, but other decision-making processes among professionals.
The only way out of it is to rely on data, like UZR. But, if the data goes against your biases too much, you will simply ignore that data, thereby reaffirming the initial bias you wanted to avoid!