THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Community Forecast, 2007 - Preliminary Results

Here’s the Google Docs of the Community Forecast for last year, 2007, for hitters. Here’s how to read the chart:
Player: Albert Pujols (playerName), pujolal01 (LahmanID), 405395 (MLB.com/Elias playerID)
Forecast: 29 ballots (n1) averaged forecast OPS of 1.101; 32 ballots (n2) averaged forecast of 154 games; appeared on 94% of Cardinals ballots

And for pitchers.  I added the teamid.  There’s also a “depth” column, which is really just a sort order.  The five new columns (Starter AceReliever Setup_or_Swing Mopup Callup ) is a percentage of all the ballots cast, where the fan thought that’s how the pitcher would be used.

I did substantial data cleanup, but I may have more to do.  That’s why I’m calling this one preliminary.  But, a first pass look seems to be reasonable, and I doubt any further cleanup will change much.  If you spot anything irregular (like all of a team’s players are too low), let me know.

I’d love it if someone out there did a study here.