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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Saturday, February 11, 2012

Clutch analogy

In reading my old article on Clutch, I was struck with an analogy.

Reds fans hated having Adam Dunn up in the clutch.  They look at him like driving an SUV in the middle lane, never diverting from that lane, regardless of the traffic situation.  He’s all about HR, BB, SO, and come hell or high water, he’s going to stick to his plan.

The other hitters they had at the time, Encarnacion, Phillips, Junior, Hatteberg, et al, are driving a Civic, bobbing and weaving through traffic, making big gains on occasion, though losing time with all the lane-changing and the occasional bad lane change.  Sometimes, those balls in play go through the fielders, and some times, well, the fielders keep getting them out.

Look at them five miles later, and Dunn ends up ahead anyway.  The fans simply wants to see action, and, like Vegas tourists and lane-shifting drivers, they’ll remember all the clutch hits, winnings, and speed gains, and simply downplay the outs in the clutch and getting stuck behind traffic and Vegas losses.

A mile gained is a mile gained, but a mile lost was unavoidable anyway.


(15) Comments • 2012/02/14 • SabermetricsClutch
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