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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Changing bats

Here’s Bill James on a zero-tolerance policy of bats coming out of hitters hands:

There is a really, really simple solution to this problem that is absolutely certain to work.  You make a rule that if the bat OR ANY PART OF THE BAT is thrown by the batter more than 40 feet from home plate, the batter is automatically out, and it goes as a strikeout.  If you do that, I guarantee you that hitters will discover real quick that a) they CAN hold on to the bat, and b) they can find bats that don’t shatter on contact.  The absence of such a rule allows the batter to get the benefits of a vicious cut and a bat designed for maximum bat speed, but excuses him the dangerous consequences of this combination.  That’s unnatural.  The natural thing is simply to hold the batter responsible for the bat.

From a baseball-fan perspective, I have no qualms with this.  I like it for its inventiveness. 

In hockey, if your stick shatters, you are required to IMMEDIATELY drop that stick.  Players then lose several seconds skating back to the bench, or worse, staying in their own zones otherwise their team will be shorthanded. 

So, it goes back to the test I was proposing with golf: (1) seriousness of offense, and (2) proportional remedy for offense.

In hockey, having a broken stick is dangerous.  Same applies for baseball, though not as much.  Hockey players are in closer proximity, always moving, and not necessarily focused on the player with the broken stick.  So, I agree that it is a seriousness enough offense that it should be codified.  Now, what about remedy?  In hockey, as I stated, you are basically depriving your team of a skater for a short period of time.  The remedy is pretty good there.  I wouldn’t go to two minutes penalty, because that would be excessive for something that is essentially a fluke.  But, there has to be a cost. 

What about baseball?  Automatic strikeout is excessive.  Giving one strike seems perfectly in keeping with the proportionality of the offense, as well as being similar to what pitchers do that earn automatic balls (going to hand).  This will nudge the batter toward getting a more shatter-resistant bat, and getting a better grip on the bat.


(13) Comments • 2010/09/09 • SabermetricsPlaying_ApproachTechnology
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