from Amazon
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Chance of scoring from any base/out
If you are looking for a quick equation:
chance of scoring
= 0.086
* (base + 0.5)
* (3 - outs)
This gives you:
Base Outs ChanceScoring
1 0 0.39
1 1 0.26
1 2 0.13
2 0 0.65
2 1 0.43
2 2 0.22
3 0 0.90
3 1 0.60
3 2 0.30
Close enough to reality for something quick that you need.
If someone wants to come up with something more robust, then play around with those arbitrary coefficients, and post your results!
If you want the actual data.