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Monday, May 17, 2010
Catcher defense
Eric has an article about catcher defense, and MGL and I were pretty involved in the discussion there. See it in context there, or read it below:
TangoTiger
(57181)
I’ll recommend these articles.
Mine:
http://www.tangotiger.net/catchers.html
Plus the followup in THT 2008 Annual on Google Books.
Max Marchi:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/two-dimensions-of-catching/
Chris Dial:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/cdial_2003-01-29_0/
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MGL
(2121)
I still don’t understand why you need a “deterrence” adjustment factor, or whatever you want to call it. If a catcher allows no SB attempts because he can throw the ball 1000 miles an hour, then you simply compare him to the average catcher. If, in fact, runners run too much such that the average catcher saves his team some RE or WE, then the catcher against whom no one runs is a liability, right? Regardless, I don’t see how there is any need to make any adjustments for catchers who deter the running game. We know the value of a SB and we know the value of the CS. So you simply take each catcher’s total SB and CS, multiply each by their respective values and that is the value of the catcher’s arm. What difference does it make how many SB attempts the catcher allows? That will be included in the calculations. If an average catcher costs his team 1 run per 150 games, then the catcher against whom no one runs is worth 1 run per 150 games, relative to the average catcher. Again, no need to do any separate calculations or adjustments based on whether a catcher “deters” runners or not, as long as you normalize every catcher to the average catcher, which everyone is going to do of course.
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TangoTiger
(57181)
MGL is right in the grand scheme of things. If you wanted to break down his baserunning game to “profile” him, you can include his deterrance. But, in terms of his overall value or impact, it makes no difference.
This is no different than an outfielder where everyone runs on him, but he manages to throw out 20% of the runners and an outfielder where no one runs on him at all. Overall they are equivalent. The interesting thing is to profile them, but that’s an aside.
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MGL
(2121)
“Sorry, but I don’t think that is necessarily the case.”
It IS the case, and I am glad that Tango chimed in since I thought that I was the only mad one in a sane world.
drawbb, outfield arms get valued by the number of advances and the number of assists (the OF throwing out a runner on the cases), as compared to the average OF at that position. If no one runs on you, you get credit for no advances. If players run on you, you get credit when they don’t advance a base, when you throw out a runner (more credit than a non-advance obviously), and demerits when runners advance the extra base.
So everything is accounted for, without any special adjustment or calculation for “deterrence” (runners not running on you).
It is exactly the same with catchers. You get credit for throwing a runner out (and pick-offs), and you get demerits for allowing a stolen base (and throwing errors on a steal). And everything gets compared to the average catcher. There is no need to adjust for “deterrence.” If no one runs on a catcher, nothing happens, just as if stolen base attempts were not allowed, like in Little League.
The way the “adjustment” occurs, if you even want to call it that, is by comparing everyone to the average catcher in the final step in the computations. The catcher that no one runs on gets exactly zero net runs, but if the average catcher has -2 net runs per season (IOW, all base runners combined generate net positive runs), then the catcher against whom no one runs, gets +2 runs in credit. Interestingly, if base runners generate net negative runs (ran too much), which they probably did for many years up until the last few years, those catchers with great arms and zero net runs (before the league adjustment) would have to be credited with net NEGATIVE runs, a little bit if a logical anomaly.
The answer to that, by those good catchers that no one runs against, is that if runners want to generate net negative runs by running too often (and/or possibly at the wrong times), then these catchers need to actually “bluff” the runners a little by not showing such a great arm and encouraging them to run a little. If that is the optimal strategy for them, and they do not do that, then they indeed deserve to be charged with net negative runs even if they have great arms and no one runs against them. That is because in baseball, as in most sports, it is not only athletic talent (like a strong arm) which creates value, but good strategy as well.
So, I would like to hear from Eric (or others) and have them explain to Tango and me what this “deterrence adjustment” (in quantifying catcher value) is all about, as it makes no sense to me.
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MGL
(2121)
Eric,
Right you just referenced the article. I was just wondering what the methodology or rational was. You seem to be familiar with it.
You say, “it matters little.” It matters none, at least as far as quantifying the catchers’ value. In your example, the 30/100 catcher probably allows zero net runs or so (assuming an overall 70% BE rate) and the 15/30 allows maybe +3 runs. The catcher who is 0/0 has zero net runs of course. And, as I said above, those numbers have to be further adjusted by the net runs allowed by the average catcher if we want to compare catchers to the average catcher although there is no great reason why we have to do that (sum the league to zero).
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MGL
(2121)
Well, I just read Chuck Brownson’s article at BTB. Here is what he does:
“I then subtracted his actual stolen base attempts from the expected number and multiplied it times the run value of the SB (0.175) times the likelihood the runner would be caught stealing (CS%).”
That is completely wrong of course. For some strange reason he is assuming that all catchers “should” have the same SB attempts (per inning I guess) with their own CS% and then crediting or debiting them the difference between what they “should” have and what they do have. That is ridiculous of course. For example, if a catcher is 1/2 in 900 innings (around 100 games), he is going to assume that they “should have” been 35/70 (or so) rather than 1/2 and he is going to give them 12.25 “rep runs” or so, which makes no sense. None whatsoever. Where did he save 12 runs? Similarly if a catcher is 3/3 (0 CS%), he is going to assume 70/70 and dock him 10.5 runs or so. Again, makes no sense.
Eric, you should not have even mentioned “rep runs” in your article. You devote an entire paragraph to it, clearly implying that that it is part of a catcher’s value. You could have mentioned that some catchers are so good that no one runs against them and therefore, paradoxically, they derive little or no value from their good arms, but you didn’t. In fact, you implied that these catchers have more value than is being captured by the traditional SB/CS numbers, which is not true. If you didn’t mean to imply that, why would you have even mentioned it, let alone devote an entire paragraph to it, based on an obscure and incorrect methodology by someone whom I have never even heard of?
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TangoTiger
(57181)
As noted by the readers at The Book Blog, the value of the “reputation” comes not in shutting down the running game (which, as MGL has shown, is already handled by the SB, CS numbers), but on the other parts of the running game, like taking the extra bases on hits.
For example, if you have Superman behind the plate, and no one tries to steal, AND they also take a shorter lead off first base, this might prevent the runners from taking an extra base on singles and doubles, and might get them doubled-up more often.
Setting that particular point aside (perfectly valid, but is not really the particular trait being discussed here), I’d encourage the readers who are skeptical to actually work out the numbers specifically.
By the way, this is exactly the same situation with the baserunning numbers (baserunners). Dan Fox introduced it in the annual a few years ago, and Dan did it exactly like MGL says we should do the catchers and arm numbers. They all work identically.