from Amazon
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Small team sample size: Can anyone just write anything they want because they have a “title”?
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes:
Maybe it’s due to maturity. Maybe it’s because they’re being more patient at the plate. But whatever the reason, the D-backs now have one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball.
The correct quote should be:
Maybe it’s due to maturity. Maybe it’s because they’re being more patient at the plate. But whatever the reason, the D-backs have had, with 13% of the season played, one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball. But, as we all know, almost anything can happen in 20 games or so. If we look at the career stats for all of their players, we can easily see that they have been hitting over their heads, and will likely have one of the least powerful lineups in all of baseball, for the remainder of the season, although even that will likely be disguised by the fact that they play half their games in the one of the best hitter’s park in the NL.
I have not read the article itself. Irresponsible me.
Here are my offensive projections for each NL team’s entire projected roster, prorated by projected playing time (granted, these numbers do not represent the projections for the D-Backs “everyday starting lineup"), which I steal from BP’s web site. This is what we expect the team to do, offense-wise, from now and to the end of the season. The measure is in regular old-fashioned Pete Palmer linear weights. Notice the D-Backs projection. Please. And pass them along to Mr. Crasnick. The reason the D-Backs have a good team is their pitching (and decent defense and baserunning), which I have as second best in the NL, just behind the Mets. It is NOT because of their hitting, despite the fact that they have been hitting well (not disgustingly well - 15 runs above average, exactly the same as ATL and ANA), linear weights-wise, so far this season!
ATL 42
MIL 35
PHI 22
FLO 19
CHN 16
NYN 14
WAS 9
LAN 7
SDN 7
SLN 5
ARI -10
CIN -11
COL -11
PIT -20
HOU -25
SFN -102