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Thursday, May 06, 2010
Bullpen Shutdowns and Meltdowns (S&M)
Royals and Phillies. Thank Crashburn for the S&M reference.
I think we just have to cement our threshhold level, and maybe Fangraphs and B-R.com can include it on their site. Top of 8th, home team up by 3, has a .923. So, pitching 2 innings and winning the game while your team doesn’t score, seems like it should definitely be a shutdown. That +.077. Top of 9th, up by 3, and it’s +.037. Bottom of 9th, up by 3 gives you +.047.
So, that’s why I selected .05 as the threshhold, just enough to give me anything better than the 1-inning 3-run lead. Maybe it should be .06 or .07. I don’t think it should be higher than .08. So, just a matter of seeing what other results were between .05 and .07 and see what might get excluded if you raise the threshhold.