from Amazon
Monday, March 16, 2009
Being behind is a good thing?
I know this is not true in baseball, nor in hockey (but I will tell you in hockey that the team that trails by exactly 2 goals scores and allows goals at a different rate than otherwise, almost certainly because the team ahead by 2 goals plays a defensive shell). But in NCAA basketball:
Take games in which one team is ahead by a point at the half, as Duke was in the 2006 loss to North Carolina. On average, the team with the lead should win more than half of those games. The data, however, show the opposite. The team trailing by a point actually wins more often…
The authors reference their study (pdf).
(Hat tip: Dan)