from Amazon
Monday, March 15, 2010
Baseball-Reference forecasts using Marcel
Ahhh, nice presentation right here:
Win Scan Prob
<=65 26.4%
66-70 30.0%
71-75 26.7%
76-80 12.9%
81-85 3.5%
86-90 0.4%
91-95 0.0%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%
That’s for the Pirates. The Pirates have an average forecast of 69.5 wins. This means that, JUST BY LUCK of playing ONLY 162 games, we expect that 16% of the time, they will win at least 76 games. (Above numbers bear that out.) And, if they have a 16% chance of winning at least 76 games, they have a 2.5% chance of winning at least 82 games. Everyone has a non-zero chance of winning the World Series.
Not to mention that this is based on a mean of 69.5% with ZERO percent uncertainty. Add in the fact that there is an uncertainty around that mean of 69.5 wins, and the chance of the Pirates winning at least 76 games will go from 16% to, I dunno, at least 20%, maybe at least 25%.