THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, July 30, 2007

Base/Out and Run Frequency

I have this laying around and a few people always ask me for “how often does each base/out frequency” occur.  So here you go:

Legend:
reoi: runs to end of inning
R0: scoreless innings
R1+: at least 1 run scoring
freq: frequency of base/out state

IIRC, this was all the games, excluding partial innings and home halves of 9th and later innings

So, runner on 1B and 0 outs: 44.4% of the time a run scored.  Runner on 2B and 1 outs: 41.4% of the time a run scored.

reoi	R0	R1+	freq	basesit	outs


0.561	0.701	0.299	0.240	Empty	0


0.300	0.824	0.176	0.170	Empty	1


0.118	0.921	0.079	0.136	Empty	2





0.959	0.556	0.444	0.056	1st	0


0.576	0.712	0.288	0.064	1st	1


0.253	0.862	0.138	0.062	1st	2





1.196	0.361	0.639	0.019	2nd	0


0.730	0.586	0.414	0.031	2nd	1


0.348	0.773	0.227	0.039	2nd	2





1.579	0.352	0.648	0.015	1st_2nd	0


0.974	0.566	0.434	0.026	1st_2nd	1


0.470	0.764	0.236	0.032	1st_2nd	2





1.486	0.128	0.872	0.003	3rd	0


0.989	0.332	0.668	0.011	3rd	1


0.390	0.732	0.268	0.016	3rd	2





1.911	0.121	0.879	0.006	1st_3rd	0


1.245	0.342	0.658	0.012	1st_3rd	1


0.537	0.711	0.289	0.015	1st_3rd	2





2.064	0.140	0.860	0.004	2nd_3rd	0


1.472	0.299	0.701	0.009	2nd_3rd	1


0.643	0.717	0.283	0.010	2nd_3rd	2





2.412	0.122	0.878	0.004	Loaded	0


1.642	0.323	0.677	0.010	Loaded	1


0.815	0.671	0.329	0.012	Loaded	2