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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Attendance Timeline adjustments
Another honest mess. New park parameter should be used, but has not been handled.
There were 20 teams that played in 1968 that also played in 1969 (i.e., in 1969, it was the 20 teams of 1968, plus the 4 expansion teams). If we ONLY look at the matching teams (the two that played in both), we see that their per-game attendance increased from 14,220 to 14,760, for an increase of 4% in attendance. However, their won-loss record went from .500 to .527 (the wonders of expansion), and that kind of jump would demand an 8% increase in attendance. We can say therefore that attendance was DOWN 4% (4% minus 8%) relative to expectations of win percentage.
I did this for all seasons. The biggest year over year drop was 1994 to 1995: a drop of 20% in attendance per game.
Anyway, I also “chained” the results. What this provides is a timeline adjustment.
For example, in 1948, the timeline adjustment is 0.98. That’s the same timeline adjustment as 1997-98. Therefore, we can say that even though there were about 17,000 per game in 1948, that’s equivalent to the 29,000 per game in 1997-98.
We see that MLB was most popular in 1993-94, though 2007-08 comes close.
Again, I’m providing an honest framework, where the mess of not considering new ballparks should be handled (by someone else).
Generally speaking, the eras can be set as:
1946-1951 (88% attendance of 2009)
1952-1960 (66%)
1961-1976 (58%)
1977-1986 (77%)
1987-2009 (99%)
Data (quasi-formatted… copy to Excel to see it better formatted):
n year1 totWin1 totAttend1 year2 totWin2 totAttend2 rateAttend AttendAdj rateAttendAdj Chain
16 1946 0.500 14,903 1947 0.500 15,970 1.07 1.00 1.07 0.87
16 1947 0.500 15,970 1948 0.500 16,865 1.06 1.00 1.06 0.93
16 1948 0.500 16,865 1949 0.500 16,287 0.97 1.00 0.96 0.98
16 1949 0.500 16,287 1950 0.500 14,053 0.86 1.00 0.86 0.95
16 1950 0.500 14,053 1951 0.500 13,022 0.93 1.00 0.93 0.82
16 1951 0.500 13,022 1952 0.500 11,808 0.91 1.00 0.91 0.76
15 1952 0.505 12,352 1953 0.494 10,811 0.88 0.96 0.91 0.69
15 1953 0.510 12,095 1954 0.510 12,828 1.06 1.00 1.06 0.62
15 1954 0.511 13,482 1955 0.506 13,142 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.66
16 1955 0.500 13,466 1956 0.500 13,363 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.65
16 1956 0.500 13,363 1957 0.500 13,770 1.03 1.00 1.03 0.65
14 1957 0.500 14,176 1958 0.501 13,269 0.94 1.00 0.93 0.67
16 1958 0.500 14,142 1959 0.500 15,449 1.09 1.00 1.09 0.62
16 1959 0.500 15,449 1960 0.500 16,119 1.04 1.00 1.04 0.68
15 1960 0.502 16,550 1961 0.516 13,851 0.84 1.04 0.80 0.71
18 1961 0.500 13,233 1962 0.519 13,345 1.01 1.06 0.95 0.57
20 1962 0.500 13,150 1963 0.500 12,647 0.96 1.00 0.96 0.54
20 1963 0.500 12,647 1964 0.500 13,088 1.03 1.00 1.03 0.52
20 1964 0.500 13,088 1965 0.500 13,824 1.06 1.00 1.06 0.54
19 1965 0.498 14,190 1966 0.499 15,400 1.09 1.00 1.08 0.57
20 1966 0.500 15,569 1967 0.500 15,007 0.96 1.00 0.96 0.62
19 1967 0.506 15,325 1968 0.500 14,437 0.94 0.98 0.96 0.60
20 1968 0.500 14,220 1969 0.527 14,760 1.04 1.08 0.96 0.57
23 1969 0.505 14,239 1970 0.504 14,928 1.05 1.00 1.05 0.55
24 1970 0.500 14,787 1971 0.500 15,065 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.58
23 1971 0.505 15,368 1972 0.507 14,782 0.96 1.01 0.96 0.59
24 1972 0.500 14,525 1973 0.500 15,497 1.07 1.00 1.07 0.56
24 1973 0.500 15,497 1974 0.500 15,435 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.60
24 1974 0.500 15,435 1975 0.500 15,393 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.60
24 1975 0.500 15,393 1976 0.500 16,150 1.05 1.00 1.05 0.60
24 1976 0.500 16,150 1977 0.511 18,363 1.14 1.03 1.10 0.63
26 1977 0.500 18,404 1978 0.500 19,306 1.05 1.00 1.05 0.69
26 1978 0.500 19,306 1979 0.500 20,748 1.07 1.00 1.07 0.72
26 1979 0.500 20,748 1980 0.500 20,409 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.78
26 1980 0.500 20,409 1981 0.500 19,116 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.76
26 1981 0.500 19,116 1982 0.500 21,160 1.11 1.00 1.11 0.72
26 1982 0.500 21,160 1983 0.500 21,611 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.79
26 1983 0.500 21,611 1984 0.500 21,249 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.81
26 1984 0.500 21,249 1985 0.500 22,274 1.05 1.00 1.05 0.79
26 1985 0.500 22,274 1986 0.500 22,595 1.01 1.00 1.01 0.83
26 1986 0.500 22,595 1987 0.500 24,712 1.09 1.00 1.09 0.84
26 1987 0.500 24,712 1988 0.500 25,234 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.92
26 1988 0.500 25,234 1989 0.500 26,170 1.04 1.00 1.04 0.94
26 1989 0.500 26,170 1990 0.500 26,046 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98
26 1990 0.500 26,046 1991 0.500 26,925 1.03 1.00 1.03 0.97
26 1991 0.500 26,925 1992 0.500 26,522 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.01
26 1992 0.500 26,522 1993 0.507 29,761 1.12 1.02 1.10 0.99
28 1993 0.500 30,964 1994 0.500 31,271 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.09
28 1994 0.500 31,271 1995 0.500 25,023 0.80 1.00 0.80 1.10
28 1995 0.500 25,023 1996 0.500 26,509 1.06 1.00 1.06 0.88
28 1996 0.500 26,509 1997 0.500 27,873 1.05 1.00 1.05 0.93
27 1997 0.501 28,221 1998 0.511 29,052 1.03 1.03 1.00 0.98
30 1998 0.500 29,040 1999 0.500 28,880 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.98
30 1999 0.500 28,880 2000 0.500 29,376 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.97
30 2000 0.500 29,376 2001 0.500 29,885 1.02 1.00 1.02 0.99
30 2001 0.500 29,885 2002 0.500 28,159 0.94 1.00 0.94 1.01
30 2002 0.500 28,159 2003 0.500 27,819 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.95
30 2003 0.500 27,819 2004 0.500 30,040 1.08 1.00 1.08 0.94
29 2004 0.503 30,752 2005 0.500 30,719 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.01
30 2005 0.500 30,820 2006 0.500 31,301 1.02 1.00 1.02 1.02
30 2006 0.500 31,301 2007 0.500 32,710 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.03
30 2007 0.500 32,710 2008 0.500 32,424 0.99 1.00 0.99 1.08
30 2008 0.500 32,424 2009 0.500 30,243 0.93 1.00 0.93 1.07
1.00