from Amazon
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
And in these corners…
It’s the amateur statisticians-bettors / professional sports fans
v
the amateur bettors / professional sports fans-statisticians
v
the amateur sports fans-bettors / professional statisticians
v
the amateur sports fans / professional bettors-statisticians
Who will win?
I haven’t read the PDF yet, but I’ll get to it soon enough.
As for the garbage time explanation, that should be easy enough to test: with two minutes to go, look at all games where the gap in scoring was 2-3 points above the line, and the score was between 12 points and 16 points. Then, look for three control groups, with two minutes to go:
a) the gap in scoring was at least 10 points above the line for the favorite (i.e., darn hard to shave without being blatant)
b) the underdog was leading by between 12 and 16 points (i.e., nothing to shave, but in the same boat as potential shavers)
c) I guess another place to look is that the favorite is 2-3 points BELOW the line, and is leading by 12-16 points (i.e., unaware of the line)
Do any of these four show differences?