from Amazon
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Alexis Rios
Hitting: 1 win per 162 above average?
Running: +0.5 wins above average?
Fielding+Position: +0.5 wins above average?
Repl: +2.5
Playing Time: 85%?
WAR = .85 (+1.0 +0.5 +0.5 +2.5) = 3.8
Presume WAR of 1.2 for 2009, then 3.3 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011, 2.3 in 2012, 1.8 in 2013, 1.3 in 2014. That’s 12.7 WAR expected through 2014. The total remaining to be paid is 61.5MM. If we keep the economy in a depression at 4.4MM per win in 2009 and 2010, and then add 8% per year after that, those wins would cost 62.7MM on the open market.
Basically, you can reasonably make the case that Rios’ contract exactly pays for his talent level, and therefore has no surplus value. If he’s better than I’ve got him listed, then he’s got surplus value. If he wins will become more costly in the future, then he’s got surplus value. If he ages better than the drop I’ve noted, then he’s got surplus value. If he’s worse than I’ve got him listed, then he’s got negative surplus value (i.e., mortgage value greater than the equity in the property).
As far as I see it, it’s a justifiable deal from both sides.