from Amazon
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Adrian Beltre
Dave likes to talk about him, and I like to look him up. Following the 2004 season, Beltre signed a 5/64 deal. Presuming a cost per win of 3.31 (in 2005), 3.64, 4.00, 4.40, 4.84 (in 2009), they were buying 16 wins above replacement for that money (and it makes little difference the shape of that distribution). This is what they’re actually getting:
What counts in terms of well, counting… accountability, is his performance based on the situation. A team will not make money (wins) if a guy is hitting homeruns in blowouts. While when a hitter hits a HR is irrelevant, mostly, in establishing his true talent level, when he hits them is the currency exchange. Performance plus timing is being exchanged for wins and losses. Beltre, since 2005, has a WPA of +1.4 wins (and WPA/LI, or Situational Wins, of +0.5 wins). He’ll probably end up with a WPA of +1.0 over the life of the contract.
He is also a wonderful fielder. From 2005-2007, UZR has him as +23 runs above average. (Dewan has him a bit better than that.) I think it’s fair to say that in 2008-2009, we should expect +7 runs total, giving us a total of +30 runs over the life of his contract, or +3 wins above average, by UZR. Fans think even more of him, and consider him possibly the best fielding 3B. How much could that be worth? The league leaders in UZR at 3B from 2003-07 are: Feliz +65, Rolen +64, Beltre +58. Remembering that UZR attempts to assign a “quality” to each ball hit to a fielder, it may simply have misclassified too harshly Beltre’s Mariner balls, and too nicely his Dodger balls. If you remove his 2003-04 play and replace it with 2008-09 play, you could argue that his 5-year Mariner run will probably be worth +40 runs, or +4 wins.
He also plays alot, like all the time. The average AL player is +2.3 per 650 PA above replacement. If we give him that for his first three years, and +2.0 (over less playing time) in each of the next two years, that’s +11 wins above replacement.
As a 3B, he is position-neutral.
Add it up: +1, +4, +11, +0 = +16 wins.
Dave is right. Beltre has gotten the Mariners exactly the number of wins they paid for.