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Wednesday, October 29, 2008
A (simple and easy) test for Joe Maddon
As many of you know, I am not enamored with Maddon’s lineup-making and in-game decision-making skills. To say the least. Of course, I think that all (or at least the “average") manger is terrible at those (mostly the latter), as compared to a theoretical optimal one, but even compared to the average manager, I think that Maddon is in the bottom half. As Rob Neyer said (or at least wondered about) on his blog the other day, I think that Maddon is “too smart for his own good.”
Anyway, tonight both managers are faced with the decision of whom to bring in from the pen, of course. Philly is due to lead off with a pinch hitter for Hammels and Balfour was already in the game for TB when it was stopped.
Now, I don’t have much of an opinion on whom TB should bring in throughout the game, at least right now, but I do have three things to say about that:
1) Since this is likely (about 60%) the last game for TB, obviously they need to make sure that they have the best matchups at all times. Plus they pretty much have everyone available, even Garza if necessary. Mostly that means R/L type matchups, but that is not always the only consideration (you might need to increase your chances of getting a ground ball or a K, etc., at some point in the game).
2) I have NO doubt that Maddon will screw something up. I am willing to lay 2-1 on that if there are any takers, although whether he screwed up or not might depend on someone’s “opinion.” Obviously I am talking about mine in this case.
3) Here is the test. If Maddon fails this one, there is NO hope for him. It should be obvious, especially since he has had almost 2 days to think about it.
No matter who he plans on bringing out to pitch to the pinch hitter leading off the 6th, he needs to bring out Balfour, since he can replace him. If he brings out any other pitcher initially, they have to pitch to at least one batter of course. Now when they announce the pinch hitter, and it is probably going to be Dobbs I would think, they can replace Balfour with a lefty. If Manuel counters with a righty pinch hitter, and I think only Coste and Bruntlett are available, although Brintlett might even be in the game already - I forgot, Maddon has at least forced Manuel to use an extra pinch hitter.
Now he can leave Balkour in to pitch against Dobbs and then Rollins and Werth, and THEN bring in the lefty, or he can bring in the lefty against Dobbs, then leave the lefty in against Coste or Bruntlett IF Manuel yanks Dobbs. Then Maddon can decide if he wants to leave in the lefty for Rollins, Werth, and of course Utley and Howard, or bring in a righty for Rollins and Werth and then another lefty for Utley and Howard.
I know that is complicated, but the “test” is simply to see if Maddon brings out Balfour at least. If he brings out another pitcher, he fails miserably. Remember the reason is that if he is going to bring out another pitcher, no matter who he brings in, he needs to wait until the pinch hitter is announced. That means that Balfour has to come out and take his warm-up pitches. Honestly I don’t think he’ll do that (bring out another pitcher initially). I think he’ll leave Balfour in to pitch to a pinch hitter, then Rollins and Werth, and then bring in, probably Price, to pitch to Utley and Howard and maybe even (probably) several more batters or innings.
I would not give him too much credit (or maybe even ANY credit) if he brings out Balfour initially (and thus not failing the test) and then has him pitch to the pinch hitter and Rollins and Utley.
If it were me, first I would have a list of everyone’s projection’s versus RH and LH batters. Not considering that, however, I would probably bring out Balfour and switch to a lefty (I am not sure which one) against the pinch hitter (assuming a lefty pinch hitter). Then I would leave him in versus Rollins or take him out for a righty, depending on who has the best projection against Rollins from either side of the plate. Then I would bring in or leave the righty versus Werth, and then bring in the lefty versus Ultey and Howard. TB has lots of pitchers who are fresh and can be used for all these R/L switches, I think. If a decision is close, maybe I opt for leaving in a pitcher rather than taking him out, since there is probably like a 25-30% chance of extra innings, I would think.