from Amazon
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
A run is a run is a run?
Let’s see:
Mariano Rivera has pitched in his career to date 922 innings, facing 3705 batters. His ERA is 2.32 (league of 4.57). His ERA+ is 197. His OPS+ is 47.
Pedro Martinez from 1999-2003 pitched 933 innings, facing 3644 batters. His ERA was 2.10 (league of 4.77). His ERA+ was 227. His OPS+ was 38.
Pedro therefore was a better pitcher, over those 5 years than Mariano has been over his career, while pitching to a virtually identical number of batters.
***
As a free agent, Mo has been earning roughly 10 million dollars per 75 innings, or roughly 130 thousand dollars per inning.
Pedro has been earning roughly 13-15MM per 220 innings, or roughly 65 thousand dollars per inning.
That is, Mo has been earning twice as much as Pedro per inning for the exact same level of performance. His LI for his career has been roughly 2.0 compared to Pedro’s 1.0; that is double.
Per LEVERAGED INNING, they’ve been earning exactly the same.
You never hear about Mo being incredibly overpaid, or Pedro being incredibly underpaid. There is not a single executive, player, or fan in baseball that believes that a run is a run is a run. If they did believe it, then Mo should be paid 5 million$ per year. And he should not even be close to being considered for the Hall of Fame.
A run is not a run.