from Amazon
Friday, December 23, 2011
4 questions about a hypothetical pitcher…
If I told you that there was a 25 year old starting pitcher who threw at least 100 IP this year, how would you answer the following questions:
1) If he throws at least 50 IP next year as a starter, is he likely (better than 50% chance) to have improved or declined in performance, as measured by something like RA per 9 or component ERA?
2) Same question but rather than likely to improve or decline, is his average performance next year going to be better or worse? One is a median and the other is a mean. For example, if he was 4.00 in year I and then had a 60% chance of being 3.50 next year and a 40% chance of being 6.00, the the answer to the first question is, “He improved,” and the answer to the second question is, “His average performance was a decline.”
Questions 3 and 4 are the same as 1 and 2, but the pitcher (he is still a starter) has no minimum number of IP in either Year I or Year II.