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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Sunday, June 14, 2009

100 pitches, 5 innings, 5 walks, batter is at 3-0: what do you do?

Batters swing in a typical situation just 8% of the time on 3-0.  So, you should already have a small strike zone to begin with.  The debate is how much to shrink your strike zone, if you should shrink it even tinier in the particular situation Phillips found himself.

Here’s what Brandon Phillips saw in the fifth inning:
image

I’m thinking he should only swing if it’s right down the middle.  Others may say he should keep his strike zone at his standard 3-0 strike zone.

Here’s the fastball he swung at:
image

Identical pitch to pitch #2.  His reasoning is even more suspect:

“Honestly, in that situation, why wouldn’t I swing on 3-0?” Phillips said. “We only had two hits at the time. Our offense stinks right now. I respect my teammates and they know it, too. They see what’s going on. We really haven’t faced anyone overmatching us. I can understand if we’re facing No. 1 pitchers but we’re not. Our team is too good to get out by the pitchers we’re facing. We should be undefeated on this road trip.

“We’re struggling. We’re not getting anybody on base. We haven’t been hitting with people in scoring position. I had an opportunity. I swung on 3-0. To tell you the truth, I didn’t even look down there. I was trying to make something happen.”

(Hat tip: Peter)


(9) Comments • 2009/06/15 • SabermetricsBall_TrackingIn-game_Strategy
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