THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Are the data and results reported in Scorecasting accurate?

By , 10:50 PM

There have been several reviews of the new book Scorecasting by an economist, Tobias Moskowitz, and an SI writer, L. Jon Wertheim. Among them are those by Chris Jaffe and Phil Birnbaum, both very smart sabermetricians and critical analysts. I encourage everyone to read both the book and the reviews. Here are the links to the reviews:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/book-review-scorecasting/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13003

Phil also talks about the book on his (excellent) blog:

http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/

Anyway, I agree with the general comments in both reviews. The book is well worth reading although they make some claims which appear to be dubious, as is often the case with mainstream books or works by authors who are not subject matter experts about which they are writing.

I decided to duplicate some of their research - at least that which seemed dubious to me - to see if it will hold up to scrutiny by a subject matter expert (me).

Here is what I came up with on the first pass:

(34) Comments • 2011/04/07 • Sabermetrics • Books • Statistical_Theory

Page 1 of 1 pages

May 22 10:35		Minor league baseballs are built to different specifications than major league baseballs
May 22 10:28		Has Bard been squeezed?
May 22 09:05		Lincecum the catcher
May 22 07:12		Extra, extra, read all about it: MLB has inter-conference play this weekend!
May 22 06:37		Firefox, IE, or Chrome?
May 22 00:56		Is the Shift actually working?
May 21 22:25		When to buy Facebook?
May 21 17:18		Zapruder Sudeikis
May 21 16:50		Cory speaks!
May 21 16:03		Combining Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) with “What Number Am I Thinking Of”
May 21 15:54		Are bullpen sessions predictive?
May 21 15:25		Defending Mitt, and other events of the day
May 21 10:54		How do you incentivize a power hitter to bunt?
May 20 21:02		Poll: I would have suspended Lawrie/Alomar for ___ part of the season
May 19 23:47		Sponsoring MLB jerseys
May 19 23:23		Brandon McCarthy on feeling like an a$$
May 19 11:03		What is DER, and what can it tell us about the bias in fielding stats?
May 18 21:29		Shyam Das
May 18 21:24		Dodgers’ win reversed because Mattingly did not attest to proper score!
May 18 19:52		RE24
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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Are the data and results reported in Scorecasting accurate?

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