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Friday, June 27, 2008
Are home teams cheating this year?
So far this year, the home team has won 56.64% of its games. The last 3 full years (05-07), the home team WP has been 54.2%. The difference in 1174 games so far in 2008 is 1.65 SD. The difference may even be less than that because in 2005, while the home team won 53.7% of its games, the home and road team run scoring suggested that the true home team WP was 54.4% (using a basic pythag formula).
This year, the home and road run scoring suggests a true 56.4% home team WP (as opposed to an actual WP of 56.6%), so perhaps we can say that the home team wp is 2% higher than over the previous 3 years.
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