THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Another pitch f/x article

The more folks that are researching the pitch f/x data, the merrier.  As we never tire of saying, it is a virtual treasure trove of information, if not the holy grail of pitcher evaluation, as well as pitcher and batter “scouting.”

Here is a tidbit from the (short) article and analysis:

Glavine is a nibbler on the mound. Early in the at-bat he is going to aim for the very edge of the corner of the plate. If the batter swings, he probably isn’t swinging at a very good pitch. If the batter takes the pitch, Glavine still might get the call from the umpire.

That said, this strategy causes Glavine to fall behind many batters. This spells doom for most pitchers who promptly throw a fastball down the middle, which gets hammered. Glavine doesn’t give in. On 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1 counts Glavine threw 76 changes while PITCHf/x was tracking. During those same counts, Glavine threw only 69 fastballs! He may throw you something that gets more of the plate, but with such a high percentage of changeups, batters who sit dead red are playing right into Glavine’s hands. Compare those numbers with those of Santana, who threw 73 fastballs and 13 changeups on those hitter’s counts.

Bold and emphasis mine.

If Galvine is throwing more than 50% changeups in those counts, something which surely the advance scouts know and tell their hitters (if not, it would be a crime), why would anyone be sitting dead read?!

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