from Amazon
Thursday, May 17, 2007
And another thing Studes didn’t know…
In the must-read feature in baseball, studes comes up with some cool stuff. Here, however, he talks about runs per play based on win probability. And, he shows that the runs per play are very high when the win probability is around 70% (16.6 runs per 100 plays!), while very low when the win probability is low (8.1 runs per 100 plays).
The most likely reason is: men on base. When you get a man on base, your chances of winning increases. And, the best way to increase your runs per play is to get a man on base. So, studes chart is likely completely explained by the base/out situation. If he were to show the chart strictly for “bases empty, 0 outs”, we’ll find a far more different chart than he is showing, and, I’m quite certain, you’ll find the runs per play to be rather constant across win probability levels.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 343 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date