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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
An interception is like losing 60 yards
Brian Burke:
The average difference between interception plays and non-interception passes is 3.81 expected points. This is the weighted average for all plays on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs for all yard line. It accounts for return yards, and down & distance situation. I excluded 4th down passes, as those are often thrown in desperation situations, where high levels of risk are acceptable and the cost of the interception is not much different than a simple incomplete pass.
3.81 points equates to approximately 60 yards of field position.
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