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Sunday, September 06, 2009
An example of how traditional stats can be deceiving
and lead to really bad decisions (by unenlightened GM’s and managers).
Here is the headline of an article on a Pirates blog, and the first sentence:
Ohlendorf Making ‘08 Trade Look Like a Steal
PITTSBURGH – Ross Ohlendorf has had a breakthrough season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, going 11-9 with a 3.97 E.R.A. for a last-place team.
Here are Ohlendorf’s DIPS component ERA, computed using a Base Runs formula applied to his component stats, adjusted for park and defense, my version, for the last 4 years. This DIPS ERA is forced to 4.00 for a league average pitcher, starters and relievers combined. Minor league MLE’s are included:
2006: 4.32
2007: 5.19
2008: 5.02
2009: 5.41
Here are his FIPs for the major leagues in 08 and 09, from Fangraphs:
2008 5.17
2009 4.74
These are roughly equivalent due to the disparity between the leagues.
Here are his tRAs from the same time period:
2008 6.16
2009 5.24
He gives up too many extra base hits and WAY too many HR’s and doesn’t strike out enough batters. His fastball has lost 2 mph from 2008 to 2009. He is 27 years old, which means he is likely going to get worse and lose more on his fastball.
Basically, Ohlendorf is a terrible pitcher. I have him currently projected at replacement level. He has done nothing better in 2009 other than pitch in the NL for a whole season, and even then his K rate (per PA) is less than it was in 2008 and 2009 which is not surprising considering his loss of velocity. I say “loss” but it could be intentional of course. Either way, he is a really bad pitcher.
Yes, because of his 11-9 record “for a last place team” and his 3.97 ERA, some blogger thinks he has had a “breakthrough season.” And I bet there are lots of people who share that “opinion.”
If Huntington has any sabermetric smarts whatsoever, he will find some sucker GM who also thinks that Ohlendorf has “turned the corner,” and trade him for some prospects or some REAL good young players. My bet is that he won’t.
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