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Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Amanda Knox
I don’t mean to open a gigantic Pandora’s box, but I am fascinated by these stories. None of us was at her trial and her appeal, and no one knows if she is guilty or not, but…
I ask all of you this question:
Imagine you or someone you care about are innocent of something like this and you are sitting in jail in Italy (or anywhere) for 4 years with the prospect of another 20 or life or even execution. Can there be much worse?
Now, let’s say that I told you that there is a 50% chance that this person (whether you know them or not) is guilty. What would you do? Let them go free or keep them in jail? That is an easy one for most people.
What about 80%? 90%? 98%?
What is your break even point?
I don’t know how to do this, so maybe Tango can do one of his surveys. I am not sure of the numbers to put up for the choices. Maybe 50%, 80%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 99.9999%.
As an aside, what percentage do you think there is that Knox is guilty, assuming you have been following her case, at least somewhat?
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