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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Alternating v Randomizing

By Tangotiger, 11:40 AM

Sometimes, when you see a play that you would not have called, you should realize that’s done to keep the other side honest.  It’s all part of game theory, where you need to randomize plays, rather than alternating them:

“We know that if they don’t blitz one down, they’re going to blitz the next down. Automatically. When you get down in there, every other play. They’ll seldom blitz twice in a row, but they’ll blitz every other down. If we go a series where there haven’t been blitzes on the first two downs, here comes the safety blitz on third down.”

(5) Comments • 2010/06/02 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyOther SportsFootball
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June 01, 2010
Alternating v Randomizing