THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Albert Pujols

I love Albert Pujols.  I’ve noted in the past that you can make a reasonable case for him to get a 300 million or 400 million dollar deal.  He is a fantastic player.

You are waiting for the “but” and here it is:

But just because Manny made a mistake, now I have to pay? Just because A-Rod made a mistake, now I have to pay? Oh, guilt by association? That’s wrong.

Not guilt by association.  Guilt due to apathy.  There’s an old saying that says “All that it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” Whether PED is truly evil or bad or whatever, is irrelevant.  Pujols himself believes they are bad as he says here:

I would never do any of that crap. You think I’m going to ruin my relationship with God just because I want to get better in this game? You think I’m going to ruin everything because of steroids?

So what did he do exactly?  Well, like virtually all players, he did nothing.  Everyone is a day late and a dollar short on the story, the media, the players, the owners.  Not the fans though.  They react the way they always do: by paying for tickets to watch MLB, regardless of whatever phony outrage the media circulates.

However, the big story is this:

Pujols, 29, says he was tested six times last year as part of MLB’s drug policy.

According to the CBA, a perfectly clean player should be tested three times, as I noted in my blog post on Manny:

If you are confused, the Joint Drug Agreement says that each player will be tested at least twice, and likely three times:
- 3.A.1.a: first week of Spring Training (every player)
- 3.A.1.b: in-season, random date (every player)
- 3.A.2: 1200 tests during the season, including a maximum of 31% in the off-season (since there are 30 teams and you have a 40-man roster, it seems likely that the “random number of players” is really exactly one test per player)

So, why would Pujols say he was tested six times? 
1. The media is inaccurate in its reporting, and Pujols said it was over the last two years.
2. The media is accurate, and Pujols misspoke, as he meant the last two years.
3. According to that same JDA, section 3.C, there were suspicions, likely unfounded but deemed reasonable:

In the event that either Party has information that gives it reasonable cause to believe that a Player has, in the previous 12-month period, engaged in the use, possession, sale or distribution of a Prohibited Substance, the Party shall provide the other Party, either orally or in writing, with a description of its information (“Reasonable Cause Notification”), and the Player will be subject to immediate testing or a program of testing, as determined by the IPA, to commence no later than 48 hours after the Reasonable Cause Notification was provided.

4. Section 5.A of the JDA, but this would seem unlikely, as we’d have seen a suspension preceding this:

A Player who has tested positive, pursuant to a test administered under the Program, for a Performance Enhancing Substance or a Stimulant shall be subject to the following mandatory follow-up testing program, administered by the IPA:
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A. Performance Enhancing Substances – three unannounced tests over the 12 months following the test that resulted in the follow-up testing;

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Dear media: yes, I am a blogger.  No, I am not a journalist.  Yes, everything here is cited.  No, I am not a journalist.  Yes, I am posting an opinion and reporting on factual statements.  No, I am not a journalist.  Yes, I am pointing out inconsistencies in statements.  No, I am not accusing Pujols of anything.