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Monday, April 30, 2007
Adjusting College Stats
Jeff and Kent look at college hitters, and do something exciting:
In short, a competition adjustment needs to happen on a plate-appearance-by-plate-appearance basis. So that’s what we did.
I think it’s fairly clear that if Preston Wilson and Derek Jeter (both drafted as 18-yr olds in the same draft year and round) face 16-yr old punks, we’re not going to learn much about which of these two hitters is better. Whatever holes these hitters may have can only be exploited by guys with the stuff to take advantage of that. As you go up the chain, this chasm in talent level is reduced.
Some people believe that there is still a chasm between AA/AAA and MLB, hence supporting their belief that guys that can hit minor league pitching can’t hit major league pitching. But, the reliability of MLE is strong enough to refute some (though not all) of that belief.
For people who really want to see this chasm, looking at PA-by-PA high school and college stats would be the way to go. If you can show that such a chasm does exist at those levels, and it doesn’t exist at the MLB level, then you have to ask to the extent that it exists in between. How much is the chasm in A, AA, AAA and the other post-college leagues? I think it’s fairly easy to say “not much”, but that’s not a real answer.
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