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Monday, February 22, 2010
Actuarial tables for injuries?
Rick Wilton, who is one of the two injury experts I follow (Will Carroll being the other… if there’s someone else, please post below), says with Ron Shandler:
Why haven’t fantasy players seen groundbreaking analysis in the field of injuries? Why can’t we produce reports that state that Player A has suffered a strained oblique injury and he has a 71% chance of spending 28 days on the DL, 12 % of landing on the DL for 29-34 days and so. I argued that while we had seen advances in injury analysis and reporting since I got into the field in the early 1990s, putting a number on it would be tough.
I think the answer is even easier: until last week, the public did not have a ready-to-download database. You can’t analyze without data. That’s why the Lahman database is a godsend, and that’s why Retrosheet is a godsend. Without easy-access to data, there is an enormous amount of ineffecient effort in collecting the data. Or, alot of money to give to someone to licence you the data. Data. That’s all we need.
So, you will see in the next 12 months what the public can do with injury data. And something like Rick is asking will be answered. Ideally, the subject matter experts would be able to give us a “scouting report” so that we have something to regress to that is more meaningful than whatever we can infer from the data. Those guys can reduce our uncertainty rate in our estimates a great deal. I know there are tons of lawyers out there that are involved on the periphery of sabermetrics. I’d like to see the doctors contribute as well.
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