from Amazon
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Ace reliever or starter in the 9th?
I did not realize there was a controversy.
Between 2000 and 2010, there were over 1700 instances in which a starting pitcher completed eight scoreless innings. In nearly two-thirds of those instances, the starter came back out for the ninth. The team allowed an average of 0.45 runs in those innings. Conversely, when the starter was pulled, his team allowed an average of 0.35 runs in the ninth.
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I ran a fixed-effect regression to predict each pitcher’s linear weights based on his time facing a batter in a game. Essentially, the output showed that the average starting pitcher loses a half-a-run-per-nine in effectiveness each time through the order.
Good stuff from Jeremy. Are we at the point that saberists and old school managers agree, but the new media has too much numbers to be dangerous?
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