Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Accounting for runs allowed
Suppose you want to account for all runs a team has allowed, and you want to attribute those runs to various components. Those components would be:
- performance of team’s pitchers
- performance of team’s fielders
- impact of this park relative to all parks
- impact of these opposing batters relative to all batters
- impact of sequencing of events
- impact of noise on non-batted ball PA events
- impact of noise on batted ball PA events
- impact of noise on non-PA events
So, a team has given up, say 100 runs less than league average, and you want to assign the numbers to each bucket such that the sum equals the whole (-100).
When it comes to the last 4 items, do we want to create a “noise” bucket, or do we want to distribute the noise to the pitchers/fielders in some fashion? This is a question of opinion. There are no right or wrong answers.


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